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Mar. 23rd, 2010 10:11 amI really enjoyed Andrew Gelman's recent review essay on the relationship between causal inference and statistics. That might sound boring, but really it is the very heart of science: what can data tell us about causes?
As you might imagine, answers to that question vary a lot. Some people say that data can never tell us about causes. (I'm looking at you, David Hume). Most statisticians would say that certain specially designed experiments can tell us about certain kinds of causes, but of course there is much disagreement about which kinds of experiments and causes fit the bill.
I come to statistics through AI, so my position is the opposite extreme from Hume, which Gelman ably summarizes as: "a computer should be able to discern causal relationships from observational data, based on the reasonable argument that we, as humans, can do this ourselves in our everyday life with little recourse to experiment."
Still, this isn't a very popular view, so I thought it could use some advertising. A catchy jingle, maybe?
The birds do it,
The bees do it,
Even the rich folks on 5th avenue do it,
Let's do it,
Let's infer causes from purely observational data!
Comments are open, but this blog does sadly have a new comments policy: all insults and ad hominem attacks will be deleted. Keep it classy, internets.
As you might imagine, answers to that question vary a lot. Some people say that data can never tell us about causes. (I'm looking at you, David Hume). Most statisticians would say that certain specially designed experiments can tell us about certain kinds of causes, but of course there is much disagreement about which kinds of experiments and causes fit the bill.
I come to statistics through AI, so my position is the opposite extreme from Hume, which Gelman ably summarizes as: "a computer should be able to discern causal relationships from observational data, based on the reasonable argument that we, as humans, can do this ourselves in our everyday life with little recourse to experiment."
Still, this isn't a very popular view, so I thought it could use some advertising. A catchy jingle, maybe?
The birds do it,
The bees do it,
Even the rich folks on 5th avenue do it,
Let's do it,
Let's infer causes from purely observational data!
Comments are open, but this blog does sadly have a new comments policy: all insults and ad hominem attacks will be deleted. Keep it classy, internets.
